Dubai Off-Plan Supply Pipeline 2026–2028
Comprehensive handover forecast for 90,000+ residential units. Breakdown by community, price segment, and developer. Construction timelines and market implications.
Last updated: April 2026
Summary
Dubai's off-plan pipeline includes approximately 90,000+ residential units scheduled for handover across 2026–2028. MBR City leads with 18,000 units, followed by Dubai South (12,000), Creek Harbour (11,000), and Dubai Hills (9,000). Major developers (Emaar, Damac, Sobha, Meraas) dominate supply. The pipeline is weighted toward mid-market segments (AED 800K–2M, ~50% of units), with strong affordable supply (25%) and growing luxury/ultra-luxury (20%). Supply is balanced by sustained investor demand (Golden Visa AED 2M+ bracket), growing international buyer interest and end-user absorption. Budget segments may face mild oversupply; mid-market and premium segments remain well-balanced. Delivery timelines are expected to hold with 90–95% completion rates based on historical developer performance.
Supply by Handover Year
2026 Handover
28,000
31% of total pipeline
Highest annual supply
2027 Handover
31,500
35% of total pipeline
Peak handover year
2028 Handover
30,500
34% of total pipeline
Sustained delivery
Supply Pipeline by Community
| Rank | Community | 2026 Units | 2027 Units | 2028 Units | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MBR City | 6,000 | 7,000 | 5,000 | 18,000 |
| 2 | Dubai South | 3,500 | 4,000 | 4,500 | 12,000 |
| 3 | Creek Harbour | 3,500 | 4,000 | 3,500 | 11,000 |
| 4 | Dubai Hills Estate | 2,500 | 3,500 | 3,000 | 9,000 |
| 5 | JVC | 2,000 | 3,000 | 3,000 | 8,000 |
| 6 | Business Bay | 2,000 | 2,500 | 2,500 | 7,000 |
| 7 | Palm Jebel Ali | 1,500 | 2,500 | 2,000 | 6,000 |
| 8 | Emaar Beachfront | 1,500 | 2,000 | 1,500 | 5,000 |
| 9 | Dubai Creek Harbour | 1,000 | 1,500 | 1,500 | 4,000 |
| 10 | Al Furjan | 1,000 | 1,500 | 1,500 | 4,000 |
Supply by Price Segment
| Price Segment | Price Range | Unit Count | % of Pipeline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Affordable | AED 300K–800K | 22,500 | 25% |
| Mid-Market | AED 800K–2M | 45,000 | 50% |
| Premium | AED 2M–5M | 4,500 | 5% |
| Luxury | AED 5M–10M | 13,500 | 15% |
| Ultra-Luxury | AED 10M+ | 4,500 | 5% |
Top 10 Developers by Supply
| Rank | Developer | Total Units | % of Pipeline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emaar Properties | 21,600 | 24% |
| 2 | Damac Properties | 13,500 | 15% |
| 3 | Sobha Realty | 9,000 | 10% |
| 4 | Meraas | 9,000 | 10% |
| 5 | Select Group | 6,300 | 7% |
| 6 | Mag Development | 4,500 | 5% |
| 7 | Azizi Developments | 4,500 | 5% |
| 8 | Omniyat | 3,600 | 4% |
| 9 | DAMAC Hills | 2,700 | 3% |
| 10 | Other Developers | 5,300 | 6% |
Market Implications
Demand-Supply Balance
- •Golden Visa (AED 2M+) demand remains robust; luxury/ultra-luxury supply is well-absorbed.
- •Mid-market has healthy demand from Asian investors; no oversupply expected.
- •Budget segment (AED 300K–800K) may face mild supply pressure; builders should monitor pricing.
Price Dynamics
- •Ultra-luxury segments will maintain appreciation (5–8% YoY) due to scarcity.
- •Mid-market appreciation may moderate (2–4% YoY) as supply increases.
- •Affordable segment could see flat-to-negative price pressure in competitive pockets.
Rental Market Impact
- •Rental supply will increase, placing mild downward pressure on gross yields.
- •Tenant quality and location-specific demand remain critical levers.
- •Purpose-built rental communities (e.g., Dubai Hills, Creek Harbour) will absorb end-user demand.
Developer Strategy
- •Major developers will prioritize on-time delivery to maintain buyer confidence.
- •Pricing strategies will shift to value-add positioning (amenities, location premiums).
- •Off-plan discounts may compress as supply increases; early-bird premiums will narrow.
Methodology & Sources
Data Collection: Supply forecasts based on announced projects from major developers, RERA registrations and MRK market intelligence.
Handover Timelines: Developer announcements and construction phase tracking. Timelines are subject to change; assume 5–10% variance in actual delivery.
Classification: Supply by price segment reflects average unit pricing within each community.
Caveat: Pipeline estimates are based on announced projects as of April 2026. Unannounced projects and delays may materially affect final figures.
Key Insights
- •90,000+ unit pipeline is substantial but manageable; no systemic oversupply expected.
- •Mid-market dominates (50% of supply), reflecting developer confidence in AED 800K–2M bracket.
- •MBR City, Dubai South and Creek Harbour are strategic growth hubs with 40,000+ units combined.
- •Emaar Properties accounts for 24% of pipeline; concentration risk is moderate given developer diversity.
- •2027 is the peak handover year (31,500 units); investors should monitor Q2–Q3 market saturation.
- •Affordable segment supply (25%) may face pricing pressure; mid-market and luxury remain well-balanced.
- •Delivery timelines are expected to hold with 90–95% completion rates based on historical track records.
Frequently Asked Questions
How many units are scheduled for handover in 2026–2028?
Approximately 90,000+ residential units are forecast for handover across 2026–2028.
Which communities have the largest supply pipelines?
MBR City (18,000), Dubai South (12,000), Creek Harbour (11,000), Dubai Hills (9,000), JVC (8,000).
Will this supply cause prices to drop?
Supply is balanced by strong demand. Ultra-luxury and mid-market have healthy demand. Budget segments may face mild pressure.
Which price segments will see the most supply?
Mid-market (AED 800K–2M) dominates at 50%. Affordable is 25%. Luxury/Ultra-Luxury combined 20%.
Are delivery timelines reliable?
Major developers have strong track records. Assume 90–95% of announced supply will deliver as planned; minor delays are normal.
Disclaimer: Figures are MRK internal research estimates based on announced projects and DLD registrations as of April 2026. All figures are approximate and subject to change due to project delays, cancellations, or scope adjustments. For professional analysis contact our team.